An Agriculturalist's Viewpoint
نویسنده
چکیده
Any discussion of systems modeIling is handicapped by the systems jargon that has developed in the literature, The communication problem is a major one, even for persons working in the same field. For the purposes of this paper, systems model. ling is defined as an activity involving the construction of a mathematical model of a system, generally but not necessarily followed by manipulation or experimentation with the model. The model may simply describe the behaviour of the system over time or space (a simulation model), or it may be based on optimising techniques such as linear or dynamic programming. Systems modelling is part of what is variously referred to as systems analysis, systems research or the systems approach (Dale, 1970; Watt, 1966; Wright, 1973). Over the last decade systems analysis, or in the context of ecology, ecosystem analysis, has attracted considerable attention. It is clear, however, that systems analysis is really no more than the use of the scientific method to study complex systems (Dale, 1970), and as such can hardly be regarded as "new". The only aspect that is new is the greater use made of mathematical models. Developments in systems modelling have largely paralleled the increasing power and availability of computers, and the acceptance by scientists of the computer as a research tooJ. Systems modelling appears to be well established in ecosystem research as evidenced by the major emphasis given to modelling in the V.S, component of the International Biome Progromme (Hammond, 1972). The appeal of systems modelling to many ecologists is understandable in that it allows them a potential means of experimenting with systems for which real life experimentation is difficult or impossible. Apart from problems of cost and time, the consequences of experimenting with many ecosystems may be biologically or socially unacceptable. By
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تاریخ انتشار 2004